Nikolas Sargeant
Bitcoin's impressive bull run appears to be concluding, with potentially 6-12 months of bearish or sideways price action ahead, according to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju.
Ju highlighted several concerning on-chain metrics indicating a significant market shift. "Every on-chain metric signals a bear market," he stated, emphasizing diminishing liquidity and newer large holders offloading Bitcoin at decreasing prices.
The CryptoQuant analysis specifically points to critical indicators including Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV), Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), and Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL). These metrics—which measure market valuation, investor profitability, and overall market sentiment respectively—are all showing important inflection points based on the 365-day moving average trends.
$82K-$85K Range Emerges as Critical Support Zone
Bitcoin recently traded around $83,156, representing a significant 15% decline over the past month. After reaching the milestone $100,000 mark in late 2024, Bitcoin has entered a classic consolidation phase following its major rally, now testing crucial support between $82,000 and $85,000.
Despite some positive sentiment from institutional purchases and speculation regarding a potential U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, the resistance zone between $85,000 and $90,000 presents a formidable barrier to further advances. Breaking through this resistance won't be straightforward, and market participants are carefully monitoring whether Bitcoin's recent momentum can sustain itself long-term.
Market Faces Pivotal Moment as Bearish Signals Intensify
Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget Research, emphasizes that macroeconomic conditions remain a significant uncertainty factor. Any unexpected Federal Reserve policy adjustments could dramatically impact market direction. If market sentiment deteriorates further, Bitcoin could potentially retreat toward the $75,000-$80,000 range, though favorable macro conditions could drive prices back toward $90,000.
Simultaneously, well-known crypto skeptic Peter Schiff has issued his own cautionary prediction, suggesting Bitcoin could experience more substantial declines if broader markets continue falling.
"The NASDAQ is down 12%," Schiff observed on X. "If this correction turns out to be a bear market, and the correlation where a 12% decline in the NASDAQ equates to a 24% decline in Bitcoin holds, when the NASDAQ is down 20%, Bitcoin will be about $65K."
With technical indicators increasingly bearish, Bitcoin faces a decisive test in upcoming months. Should macroeconomic conditions remain stable, prices might stabilize near current support levels. However, if institutional confidence weakens or NASDAQ declines continue, Bitcoin's correction could accelerate, potentially bringing the $65,000-$75,000 range into focus.
